投資氣氛高漲徵兆〈宏觀散打〉2014-10-29

GTRONIC – Fundamental Analysis (29 Oct 2014)

GTRONIC Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1wFdkdP

My View:-

- Fair Value
  – 3Y DCF
    – Good Scenario: 5.57 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
    – Base Scenario: 4.92 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 4.34 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario: 3.83 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.19) – Fair value 3.91 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.222) – Fair value 4.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.236) – Fair value 4.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.283) – Fair value 5.82 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (4.24): 0.206
- Shariah status – Globe could be trade at a premium given the ample domestic liquidity and strong participation by domestic institutions.
- GTRONIC has been consistently delivering steady earnings growth by keeping pace with market demands. This was shown in its latest quarterly results announcement. With a growing cash pile, the company mostly will continue its attractive dividend payouts. I believe that there is still slight room for the stock to appreciate further with expectation on another solid year ahead in FY15.
- The FY15E dividend yield of 6% also looks attractive.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (28 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1778113

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GTRONIC.

DIALOG – Fundamental Analysis (29 Oct 2014)

DIALOG Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1tgaCux

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – Absolute EY% valuation:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.056) – Fair value 1.94 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.068) – Fair value 2.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.64): 0.047
- Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued.
- Construction works for Phase 1A Pengerang CTF has already been completed in 1QCY14. Phase 1B and Phase 1C are expected to be completed in mid-2014 and end-2014.
- Phase 2 should be "good-to-go" given that the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Petronas’ RAPID project has been approved. For now, the finalised tank terminal capacity and equity stake is pending.
- The Balai RSC has apparently hit first-oil and is due for Extended Well Testing (EWT) program by 1QCY14.
  – Only expected earnings contributions from FY17, and as such, any project acceleration would be further earnings catalyst for DIALOG.
- DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions.
- I may continue to accumulate DIALOG. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (28 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1777945

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG.

對退休的關注及迷思〈宏觀散打〉2014-10-24

SIME – Fundamental Analysis (23 Oct 2014)

SIME Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1wugAbO

My View:-

- Fair values/Market Timing:
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.512) – Fair value 10.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.556) – Fair value 11.76 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.529) – Fair value 11.2 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.589) – Fair value 12.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.91): 0.374
- The share price driver will be the potential spin off exercise within SIME business divisions which should allow SIME valuation to be rerated higher as it should emerge as pure planter. As it is, it has been reported by media quoting Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh specifying that the listing of its motor unit is set to be executed in 1HCY15 subject to market conditions.
- I will continue to hold SIME.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (21 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1771817

At the time of writing, I owned shares of SIME.

BURSA – Fundamental Analysis (22 Oct 2014)

BURSA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1tKrWJU

My View:-

- Fair Value:
  – 5Y-DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 10.10 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
    – Base Scenario: 8.86 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 7.76 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario: 6.79 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.325) – Fair value 9.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.323) – Fair value 9.74 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.36) – Fair value 10.86 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.393) – Fair value 11.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.91): 0.262
- In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers
  – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale.
  – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market.
- he increased interest by retail investors, in particular, is a positive sign. Local institutions remain a steady presence in the market, buffering stocks from the worst of the effects of selling by foreign investors.
- I remain sanguine on the company’s outlook over the longer term, as a proxy for the country’s growth. Its business model is also fairly resilient. As mentioned above, recurring and other incomes, including interest income, is sufficient to cover some 91% of total operating expenses.
- I will continue to hold and accumulate BURSA. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1770229

At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA.

DIGI – Fundamental Analysis (22 Oct 2014)

DIGI Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1s3vQ9s

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – 5Y DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 6.17 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Base Scenario: 5.35 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Bad Scenario: 4.62 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
    – Ugly Scenario: 3.97 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.219) – Fair value 5.64 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.26) – Fair value 6.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.25) – Fair value 6.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.264) – Fair value 6.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (5.93): 0.231
  – Both models indicate that DIGI is slightly undervalued.
- The modernised network has improved the network quality and customer experience scorecard. This is evident with the 89% reduction in customer complaint.
- Data monetisation continue to be Digi’s trump card as shown in the strong data revenue growth.
- Operating margin also continues to improve as the company efficiently manages its expenses.
- Digi’s practise of paying out almost all of its earnings serve as another sweetener to the stock.
- I recently accumulated DIGI. I am willing to pay some premium for this stock due to its outstanding performance and defensiveness.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1770149

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIGI.