Forex Roulette

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OCK – Fundamental Analysis (28 Nov 2014)

OCK Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1vthVhS

My View:-

  • Fair values:
    – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
    – FY13 (EPS: 0.05) – Fair value 1.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – R4Q (EPS: 0.049) – Fair value 1.1 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
    – FY14 (EPS: 0.07) – Fair value 1.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – FY15 (EPS: 0.09) – Fair value 2.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.44): 0.064
  • I will revisit OCK after completion of the purchase of an 85% stake in PT Putra Mulia Telecommunication (PMT). My worry is Indonesia government may interfere this acquisition.
  • If the acquisition is successful, I will seriously consider to buy this stock.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (27 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1808073

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of OCK.

DAYANG – Fundamental Analysis (28 Nov 2014)

DAYANG Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1rwWfmY

My View:-

- Fair value:
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.146) – Fair value 3.09 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.205) – Fair value 4.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 5.06 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 5.8 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.83): 0.134
- Dayang’s current orderbook is approximately RM4.5m which may last through to 2018. The company’s tenderbook is approximately RM1b. Based on its historical tender success rate of 40-50%, we could possibly expect new order replenishment of RM400-500m by the end of this year. The bulk of the new jobs could be engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of offshore structures. There could potentially be another RM3-4b worth of local offshore EPCC jobs up for grabs in the next two to three years.
- I am generally positive on the current developments and progress of Dayang’s HUC projects. In addition, the company is venturing into the EPCC segment of the value chain. Given the company’s history and reputation of being a conservative and risk-averse company, the EPCC venture will bear fruit in the medium to long term.
- DAYANG is currently undervalued. I am seriously considering to buy DAYANG, but I already have quite a few O&G counters in my portfolio. Thinking.…….

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (26 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1805797

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG.

PADINI – Fundamental Analysis (28 Nov 2014)

PADINI Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1Fzk2Dt

My View:-

- Fair value
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 1.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.125) – Fair value 1.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.152) – Fair value 2.03 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.169) – Fair value 2.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.7): 0.128
- In my opinion, at 1.70, I think PADINI valuation is attractive due to
i) attractive dividend yield of 8%
ii) commendable top line growth backed by aggressive expansion
iii) BO stores targeting the value-for-money segment which will do well in current economic environment
iv) highly experienced management team with a strong local retail market knowledge
- PADINI regained syariah compliant. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/node/172093
- For recent sector analysis, please read http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/apparels-the-busy-weekly-15032014.pdf

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (26 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1806789

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PADINI.

DLADY – Fundamental Analysis (27 Nov 2014)

DLADY Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1rwQX54

My View:-

- Fair Value:
  – 10-Y DCF:
    – Base Scenario – 68.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – Good Scenario – 56.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario – 46.33 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario – 38.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 2.16) – Fair value 46.28 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 1.692) – Fair value 36.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 1.759) – Fair value 37.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – FY15 (EPS: 1.956) – Fair value 41.9 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (45.4): 2.119
- I am positive with DLADY’s future:
  – Its solid fundamentals and strong branding position
  – Aggressive marketing and promotional activities
  – Robust demand of diary product in the long-term as Malaysia’s population is projected to reach 38 million people by 2040 from 30 million currently.
- Short term concerns:
  – The sales volume to continue the downtrend in view of the tough and challenging operating environment with consumer spending being undermined by the high costs of living
  – Strong USD/MYR will reduce profit margin of DLADY because of import of raw materials from other countries.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (25 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1804233

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of DLADY.

UCHITEC – Fundamental Analysis (27 Nov 2014)

UCHITEC Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1xILvOI

My View:-

- Fair value:
  – Absolute EY%
      – Trailing:
        – FY13 (EPS: 0.106) – Fair value 1.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        – R4Q (EPS: 0.125) – Fair value 1.54 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – Forward:
        – FY15 (EPS: 0.119) – Fair value 1.47 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        – FY16 (EPS: 0.118) – Fair value 1.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.4): 0.113
  – UCHITEC is fully valued.
- UCHITEC has low earning visibility/predictability.
- Although its dividend payout maintains above 80%, its Dividend Yield has been declining from 10% to 7%.
  – On one hand, at 1.41, you are still able to enjoy 7% dividend yield
  – On the other hand, is it possible for UCHITEC maintain high dividend payout while its net profit and free cash flow has been declining since 2008?
- I do not expect any significant rebound in end demand for premium automatic coffee machines, and this is largely reflected in Uchi’s results. Furthermore with the macro headwinds in Europe, Uchi’s key market, I do not see any near term re-rating catalyst for the stock.
- I will move UCHITEC to the Research List.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (24 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1803309

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of UCHITEC.

EFORCE – Fundamental Analysis (26 Nov 2014)

EFORCE Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1yeFjSl

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – 5-Y DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 0.59 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Base Scenario: 0.53 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Bad Scenario: 0.47 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
    – Ugly Scenario: 0.43 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
  – Absolute EY%:
      – Trailing:
        – FY13 (EPS: 0.034) – Fair value 0.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
        – R4Q (EPS: 0.039) – Fair value 0.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – Forward:
        – FY14 (EPS: 0.038) – Fair value 0.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
        – FY15 (EPS: 0.043) – Fair value 0.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.61): 0.045
- This is another good stock I consider to buy, but I am just not sure about its growth drivers because Malaysia market in stock trading is not as big as US/Europe.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (21 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1802125

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of EFORCE.