SIME – Fundamental Analysis (23 Oct 2014)

SIME Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1wugAbO

My View:-

- Fair values/Market Timing:
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.512) – Fair value 10.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.556) – Fair value 11.76 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.529) – Fair value 11.2 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.589) – Fair value 12.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.91): 0.374
- The share price driver will be the potential spin off exercise within SIME business divisions which should allow SIME valuation to be rerated higher as it should emerge as pure planter. As it is, it has been reported by media quoting Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh specifying that the listing of its motor unit is set to be executed in 1HCY15 subject to market conditions.
- I will continue to hold SIME.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (21 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1771817

At the time of writing, I owned shares of SIME.

BURSA – Fundamental Analysis (22 Oct 2014)

BURSA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1tKrWJU

My View:-

- Fair Value:
  – 5Y-DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 10.10 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
    – Base Scenario: 8.86 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 7.76 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario: 6.79 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.325) – Fair value 9.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.323) – Fair value 9.74 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.36) – Fair value 10.86 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.393) – Fair value 11.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.91): 0.262
- In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers
  – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale.
  – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market.
- he increased interest by retail investors, in particular, is a positive sign. Local institutions remain a steady presence in the market, buffering stocks from the worst of the effects of selling by foreign investors.
- I remain sanguine on the company’s outlook over the longer term, as a proxy for the country’s growth. Its business model is also fairly resilient. As mentioned above, recurring and other incomes, including interest income, is sufficient to cover some 91% of total operating expenses.
- I will continue to hold and accumulate BURSA. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1770229

At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA.

DIGI – Fundamental Analysis (22 Oct 2014)

DIGI Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1s3vQ9s

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – 5Y DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 6.17 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Base Scenario: 5.35 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Bad Scenario: 4.62 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
    – Ugly Scenario: 3.97 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.219) – Fair value 5.64 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.26) – Fair value 6.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.25) – Fair value 6.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.264) – Fair value 6.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (5.93): 0.231
  – Both models indicate that DIGI is slightly undervalued.
- The modernised network has improved the network quality and customer experience scorecard. This is evident with the 89% reduction in customer complaint.
- Data monetisation continue to be Digi’s trump card as shown in the strong data revenue growth.
- Operating margin also continues to improve as the company efficiently manages its expenses.
- Digi’s practise of paying out almost all of its earnings serve as another sweetener to the stock.
- I recently accumulated DIGI. I am willing to pay some premium for this stock due to its outstanding performance and defensiveness.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1770149

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIGI.

低油價下的其他受害者〈宏觀散打〉2014-10-20

BJFOOD – Fundamental Analysis (17 Oct 2014)

BJFOOD Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/11CQMPt

My View:-

- Fair Value:
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.086) – Fair value 1.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.087) – Fair value 1.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.101) – Fair value 1.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.16) – Fair value 2.93 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.75): 0.16
- The valuation is not attractive, and the current price already factored in the future growth

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (15 Sep 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1740717

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of BJFOOD.

全球股市 油價大跌分析〈蕭若元:最新蕭析〉2014-10-17

Crude Oil – May stabilize from 75 to 80

In scrutinizing the following chart, I think the possibility of crude oil prices stabilizing from 75 to 80 is very high. Moreover, based on history, Crude Oil prices tend to rebound when it touched the said support zone.

Crude Oil 16102014

Besides, as we all know, decline of oil prices also impact the performance of oil exploration/production and services companies. Here, I posted two ETF charts: “XOP – SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Product” and “OIH – Market Vectors Oil Services ETF”.

  • XOP – The S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index represents the oil and gas exploration and production sub-industry portion of the S&P Total Markets Index. The S&P TMI tracks all the U.S. common stocks listed on the NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ National Market and NASDAQ Small Cap exchanges. The Oil & Gas Exploration Index is an equal weighted market cap index
  • OIH – The Index is a rules based index intended to track the overall performance of 25 of the largest U.S. listed, publicly traded oil service companies.

Both charts show that both indexes approaching its respective support zone. So, in theory, the indexes may stabilizing in the zone. Of course, I don’t eliminate the possibility of breaking below the support zone if the oil prices continue to decline.

XOP 16102014

OIH 16102014