宏觀經濟 2014-12-20

SCIENTX – Fundamental Analysis (18 Dec 2014)

SCIENTX Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1AKKhp1

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/l8x3el3

My View:-

- Valuation:
  – 5Y DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 10.91 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
    – Base Scenario: 9.49 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 8.23 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Ugly Scenario: 7.12 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – If growth of FCFF in the next 5 years is 1%, SCIENTX still worth 6.98.
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 6.2 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.675) – Fair value 6.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.73) – Fair value 6.74 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.844) – Fair value 7.8 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.98): 0.756
  – Absolute PE:
    – FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 8.78 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – R4Q (EPS: 0.675) – Fair value 8.83 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- SCIENTX is still under valued. In overall, uncertainty of fair values is from MEDIUM to HIGH.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (17 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1828657

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX.

談金融從業員道德與操守〈宏觀散打〉2014-12-17

HAIO – Fundamental Analysis (17 Dec 2014)

HAIO Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/16sc0Su

My View:-

- Valuation:
  – 5Y DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 2.67 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Base Scenario: 2.34 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 2.06 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario: 1.8 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – I will select bad and base scenario for HAIO valuation.
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.205) – Fair value 2.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.176) – Fair value 2.33 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.148) – Fair value 1.96 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.16) – Fair value 2.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.19): 0.165 
  – Both models show that HAIO valuation is not attractive.
- Despite the current slump in its earnings, coupled with the possibility of longer-than-expected effect from the strategy shift, HAIO’s attractive dividend will be the main catalyst for the stock.
- I will continue to hold HAIO as I believe that HAIO has the ability to overcome the challenges ahead.

Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (16 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1827421

At the time of writing, I owned shares of HAIO.

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俄羅斯盧布加息 經濟雪上加霜〈蕭若元:最新蕭析〉2014-12-16

Strong USD, Weak RM – Potential Stocks (Cont.)

Over the weekend, I have revisited WELLCAL, VITROX, GTRONIC, WILLOW and SCIENTX. All of these stocks fundamentally are excellent.

I have shortlisted VITROX and WELLCAL in my wish list. Initially, I wanted to buy both within this week. However, after yesterday market plunge, I have to change my plan. I believe that I may be able to get cheaper prices at later stage. I will keep both in view.

In addition, after evaluating my current available capital, reserves (for bear market) and forex gains, I still can accumulate stocks in my current portfolio for 4 to 6 times during bear market. My wife and I also have some funds to accumulate some stocks for sons.

As I made very big gains in forex trading due to strong USD, the gains is more than enough to cover the value shrunk in my stock portfolio, and increase my reserves too. As of now, I have 5 open positions in shorting AUD/USD and EUR/USD.

BTW, I won’t invest plantation counters for the time being.