BOILERM – Fundamental Analysis (23 May 2015)

BOILERM Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1Lw7npq

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/mf7ng3w

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.076) – Fair value 2.17 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.076) – Fair value 2.17 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.128) – Fair value 3.66 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.147) – Fair value 4.2 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.47): 0.051
  • I am still new to this counter. I will continue to study in details.
  • BOILERM started bullish since Jan of 2013, but looking at this, it is still undervalued
  • I will place this counter in Watch List.

Latest Financial – Q4 2015 Financial Report (21 May 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4746637

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of BOILERM.

VITROX – Fundamental Analysis (23 May 2015)

VITROX Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1FFoiVM

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/q9865xx

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.211) – Fair value 2.38 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.233) – Fair value 2.62 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.238) – Fair value 2.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.269) – Fair value 3.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.63): 0.323
  • As guided, 1Q15 top line grew 45.7% yoy to RM33.3m thanks to ABI sales which surged 96% yoy. However, sales contracted sequentially by 21.7% as both MVS and ABI’s contribution fell by 36% qoq and 15% qoq, respectively. This is in tandem with the seasonally weaker semiconductor equipment spending.
  • I recognize that my valuation is not as compelling as what suggested by Maybank and Hong Leong analysts. To reach target price suggested by them, they assumed that EY% of VITROX can drop to around 5%. Looking at historical EY% band, the average of low EY% is 8.5%, and in 2011, VITROX’s EY% was at 5% level for few months.
    • Of course, we can always argue that "past performance is not an indicator of future results".
    • In my opinion, the recent price performance of VITROX already factored in the future potential earnings.
  • If VITROX encounters correction in future, I may buy VITROX.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (23 May 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4745225

At the time of writing, I  did not own shares of VITROX.

COASTAL–Fundamental Analysis (22 May 2015)

COASTAL Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1PAkPyr

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/krg8r75

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY% Valuation:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.367) – Fair value 3.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.391) – Fair value 3.36 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.444) – Fair value 3.82 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.385) – Fair value 3.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.92): 0.34
    • Uncertainty of fair value range MEDIUM to HIGH. Valuation is not so attractive.
  • 1Q15 net profit surged 34.1% YoY to RM65.9m from RM49.2m due to higher OSV vessels delivered by the group (5 units in 1Q15 vs. 3 units in 1Q14). However, gross margin declined to 18.7% in 1Q15 compared to 23.4% in 1Q14 due to lower margin vessel mix.
  • COASTAL is awaiting its 2nd high-specification jack-up rigs due for delivery in 2H15. If no contract is secured, the management will elect to dispose the rig pre-actual delivery to reduce their risk exposure.
  • 22 May 2015 – Excluding its 1st Jack Up rig sale earlier and RM1.3b Gas rig contract, the group’s orderbook stands at RM1.1b providing earnings visibility until 2017 amid current challenging market.
  • I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (21 May 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4745905

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL.

DELEUM – Fundamental Analysis (21 May 2015)

DELEUM Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1Lg34hg

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/nhnqj82

My View:-

  • Valuation
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.148) – Fair value 1.5 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.144) – Fair value 1.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.161) – Fair value 1.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.167) – Fair value 1.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.58): 0.157
  • Valuation of DELEUM is not attractive.
  • 09 Mar 2015 – The RM3.8 billion order book provides long-term earnings visibility as the group’s lengthiest contract extends to 2023.
  • The slump of brent crude oil futures is having an effect on the level of activities of the O&G producers and contractors in Malaysia.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (20 May 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4742689

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM.

AXIATA – Fundamental Analysis (20 May 2015)

AXIATA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1Bb9RU9

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/q95yes3

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.272) – Fair value 6.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.263) – Fair value 6.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.295) – Fair value 6.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.317) – Fair value 7.26 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.75): 0.295
  • Management alluded to a potentially weak 1Q15 for Celcom, as
    • The IT issues have still not been fully resolved and,
    • There is likely some spill-over impact from the East Coast floods.
  • High challenges ahead as the results weren’t good in FY15 Q1.
    • Celcom recorded lower earnings due to higher operation and network costs
    • XL recorded losses of RM215.4m due to the integration of Axis and high network expansion costs
    • More capex was channelled to Celcom and Bangladesh operations in 1Q15
    • Robi – Impacted by
      • country-wide political unrest and blockage
      • higher depreciation and amortisation charges.
  • Earnings growth from Celcom and XL remains uncertain, and sizable exposure to forex is a known risk to AXIATA’s earnings.
  • I will continue to hold, but won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (19 May 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4741561

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA.

PADINI – Fundamental Analysis (20 May 2015)

PADINI Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1PwFqUf

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/lyevtd9

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 1.82 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.115) – Fair value 1.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.118) – Fair value 1.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.142) – Fair value 1.88 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.35): 0.102
  • Assuming PADINI dividend payout is consistent, I think dividend yield is around 9%.
  • In overall, PADINI valuation is slightly attractive.
  • FY15Q3 earnings rose +26.0%yoy and +64.1%qoq to RM26.6m
    • Higher operating costs and effective tax rate caused margin erosion to maintain its market share.
  • In coming quarters, I think GST and competition from new entrants to the market will be the main risk for PADINI. I think these issues are short term. If PADINI is able to go through this, PADINI future will be quite promising.
  • I will continue to hold, and accumulate PADINI if possible.

Latest Financial – Q3 2015 Financial Report (19 May 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4741437

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PADINI.

投資比賽教壞人〈宏觀散打〉2015-05-15