PBBANK – Fundamental Analysis (14 Feb 2016)

Fundamental Analysis as of FY15 – http://www.slideshare.net/lcchong76/pbbank-fundamental-analysis-fy15

Peer Comparison in Bank Industry (KLSE) –http://www.slideshare.net/lcchong76/bank-industry-klse-peer-comparison

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1PF9lZA

Latest Financial – Q4 2015 Financial Report (3 Feb 2016) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4992905

FY15 Q4 Results Highlight:

MIDF’s analysis is very comprehensive, so I won’t write my analysis for FY15 Q4 results.

Valuation:

I think fair value of PBBANK is around 20. The uncertainty risk of fair value is close to High.

Going Forward:

Despite unexpected good results of PBBANK in FY15, moving forward, I believe that PBBANK result will be stable or a bit slow down. This is because loan applications will continue to be slow marginally and NIM compression will be higher in the future.

I will continue to hold this share, and accumulate it when there is a dip in the price.

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK.

BURSA – Fundamental Analysis (14 Feb 2016)

Fundamental Analysis as of FY15 – http://www.slideshare.net/lcchong76/bursa-fundamental-analysis-fy15

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1PJDeDO

Latest Financial – Q4 2015 Financial Report (2 Feb 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4991505

FY15 Q4 Results Highlight:

  • Bursa’s 4QFY15 securities trading revenue improved to RM59.8m (+2.2%yoy and +4.3%qoq) in tandem with higher securities ADV traded of RM2.04b (+7.4%yoy and +5.6%qoq).
  • For derivatives trading revenue, it jumped 16.7%yoy to RM22.1m but was lower by -7.7%qoq due to drop in ADC traded for both FCPO (-3.5%qoq) and FKLI (-26%qoq) contracts.
  • Meanwhile, BSAS continued to register strong revenue growth of 40%yoy and 17.7%qoq to RM5.0m in 4QFY15.
  • Key Operating Drivers:

BURSA-FY15-Q4-Drivers

Valuation:

I think fair value of BURSA range from 8.8 to 9.7. Uncertainty risk of fair value is close to High.

BURSA-FY15-Q4-Football-Field

Going Forward:

In 2016, retail investors/traders likely to stay on the sideline and become more vigilant with their trading habits given the current choppy market environment. Behavioral finance studies have also shown that investors tend to be more loss averse rather than risk averse, leading to this to effect.

On the other hand, the recent return of foreign funds and impending injection of local funds in 4QFY15 as positive to rejuvenate trading activity in the securities market in the coming months.

The global environment remains challenging with the recovery in high-income economies being gradual and global trade growing at its slowest pace since 2009 (The World Bank, 4 Oct 2015). Malaysia is affected by internal and external factors, particularly the weakening of the Ringgit, with its economic growth currently projected at 4.7% compared to 5.2% at the start of the year. Malaysia remains amongst the world’s healthiest Islamic economic environment (Halal Focus, 28 Sep 2015) that will underpin the interest of its Shariah compliant securities, despite the current global economic situation. Increased adoption of Murabaha and Tawarruq’ contracts in the domestic market for liquidity management as well as the tenor based pricing have deepened the usage and will further spur the growth of Bursa Suq Al-Sila’ (BSAS) activities.

I remain sanguine on the company’s outlook over the longer term. Its business model is also fairly resilient. As mentioned above, recurring and other incomes, including interest income, is sufficient to cover some 91% of total operating expenses.

I will continue to hold this share, and accumulate it if there is a discount.

At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA.

Wishing a prosperous new year, enjoy your holiday and drive safely.

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KMLOONG – Fundamental Analysis (27 Jan 2016)

Fundamental Analysis as of FY15 – http://www.slideshare.net/lcchong76/kmloong-fundamental-analysis-fy15

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1Vqdr7b

Latest Financial – Q3 2016 Financial Report (30 Dec 2015)

FY16 Q3 Results Highlight:

  • The revenue increased by 16.6% for Q3FY16 (RM209m) if compare to Q3FY15 (RM179m). KMLOONG increased operating income by 68% (Q3FY16: RM36m; Q3FY15: RM21m).
  • The revenue dropped by -1.4% for 9MFY16 (RM585m) as compared to 9MFY15 (RM594m).
  • The better performance was partly due to impairment of assets and provision for contingent liabilities for RM3 million had been recognized in last year, and higher FFB production.
  • The FFB production for Q3FY16 was 88,600 MT which was 14% higher than Q3FY15. For 9MFY16, the FFB production was 235,000 MT which was 3% higher than 227,400 MT achieved in 9MFY15.
  • Total CPO production for 3QFY16 and 9MFY16 were 89,100 MT and 231,200 MT respectively which were 25% and 16% higher than the production in the corresponding periods last year.
  • The market condition and demand for KMLOONG’s milling products has been good and steady for the Q3FY16 and 9MFY16. The sale of CPO, for Q3FY16 and 9MFY16, were 85,600 MT and 226,900 MT respectively, which were 21% and 11% higher comparing to the respective corresponding periods last year. The average prices of CPO for Q3FY16 and 9MFY16 were in the region of RM2,050 per MT and RM2,150 per MT respectively which were about 3% and 10% lower comparing to the respective corresponding periods last year.

Valuation:

  • In my opinion, in near term, the fair value of KMLOONG range from 3.1 to 3.5; in long term, the fair value range from 4.5 to 4.7.

KMLOONG-FY16-Q3-Football-Field

Going Forward:

  • KMLOONG is not only a good counter for trading, but it maintains high dividend yield too. I am not sure it can maintain high dividend yield if CPO prices continue at low range.
  • The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities.
  • I believe that
    • CPO price will remain stable in 2016
    • FFB and CPO production of KMLOONG will increase marginally in 2016
  • I just accumulated KMLOONG recently.

At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG.

GAB – Fundamental Analysis (25 Jan 2015)

Fundamental Analysis as of FY15 – http://www.slideshare.net/lcchong76/gab-fundamental-analysis-fy15

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1RHc0TN

Latest Financial – Q2 2016 Financial Report (19 Jan 2015)

FY16Q2 Analyst Briefing Presentation

FY16 Q2 Results Highlight:

  • GAB recorded 2QFY16 revenue of RM524.5m (+0.7% yoy) and core earnings of RM90.8m (+19.3% yoy) due to improved cost efficiency, phasing of certain brand advertisement and promotion investments which will take place in the coming months, and higher sales.
  • Profit before tax  increased by 16% from RM174 million to RM202 million

Valuation:

  • In my opinion, fair value of GAB range from 15.3 to 17.7. Uncertainty risk of fair value is MEDIUM.

GAB-FY16-Q2-Fair-Values

Going Forward:

  • For FY16, it will be challenging for GAB to pass on large price increases to consumers in view of
    • The softer environment
    • Anti-profiteering act which prohibits price increases if it increases profitability excessively.
  • I will continue to hold and accumulate this stock for my kids.

At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB.

US Market Turned to Big Bear

I wanted to post this chart last week, but I forgot about it until today. It’s still not too late to confirm that US market already turned to big bear. I think low oil prices is main culprit.

Today, I chit chat with a friend. We think that if US does another QE, the world may return to “normal”.

S&P500 Index

82698598

Academy 槟城 202课程

Source: http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=33792&extra=page%3D1

地点 GLOW Penang Hotel, Meeting Room (101, Jalan Macalister, Georgetown, 11400 Georgetown, PulauPinang, Malaysia)
日期2016年2月28日(星期日)
时间:准时早上10点至下午6
主讲人:千年虫(whytoocare
助教:无聊人
人数:只限15人(先报名先得)
费用RM488 (提供午餐)Academy学员或在籍学生RM338
*学生请scan学生证然后email至wwloon32@gmail.com
(报名者除了当天课程之外,课后会被邀请加入Investalks Academy 。在里面,会员可以无限询问有关课堂上的问题,主讲人或助教会尽快给予回复。)
对象群学过基本面的投资者或者想要对新一套选股法认识的投资者或有上过Academy 101课程的学员
 
大家有兴趣,也不妨查阅我们的101课程:

http://investalks.com/forum/foru … &extra=page%3D1

课程内容包括:
1. 深入分析选股模式:寻找信息,未来盈利预测买卖决定考虑的因素
2. 察觉隐形信息的思考
3. 如何看出陷阱数字的可能性
4. 示范找股工具
5. 示范个股分析
 
时间
活动
9.30am-10.00am
报到
10.00am-11.30am
选股模式:寻找信息,未来盈利预测买卖决定考虑的因素
11.30am-12.00am
茶点
12.00pm-1.30pm
察觉隐形信息的思考
1.30pm-2.30pm
午餐
2.30pm-4.00pm
陷阱数字的可能性
4.00pm-4.30pm
茶点
4.30pm-6.00pm
找股工具/示范个股分析
6.00pm
结束
 
主讲人简介:千年虫(whytoocare
-Investalks元老会员、前版主
-冷门股发掘者
-《千年虫》部落格格主:http://whytoocare-y2k.blogspot.com/

 

个人感言
如果大家有注意的话,虫大的个人图像的虫虫多数时间都是在打瞌睡。但是有时会变成戴墨镜的虫虫,那就是虫大获利的时候了。
我个人很喜欢去虫大的部落格,因为那里就像未来黑马的预测机。根据我长期追踪以来,虫大预测的5只股,有4只在不久的将来会有一番作为。
在这么多家上市公司中,要发掘当中的好股,需要一番功力。要发掘即将爆发的好股,更是高手中的高手。
想要知道虫大是如何选择这些股票的,记得来听虫大的分享哦。-夜月

 

报名程序:
1)Bank in 至
银行:Maybank
户口号码:514383562062
户口用户:Ivestalks Enterprise

 

2)attach收据并通知无聊人 (email至wwloon32@gmail.com,方便整理帐目)

3)过账后,请填写表格

*一旦汇款报名成功,主办单位已当参与者确定出席。
若经已报名未克出席者,可找人代替出席,恕一概不退款
名额有限,先到先得。主办当局保有一切内容更改的权利。

备注:

1,过账后请保留单据或证据,若有纠纷则以单据或证据为根据。
2
,请注意公共健康和卫生,照顾场地清洁和其他的健康

3,主办当局将会根据已经过账的记录做准决定报名以示公正,任何填写表格但未过账的报名将不会获得确认。