AXIATA–Fundamental Analysis (25 Feb 2014)

AXIATA Analysis:-

Excel – https://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/axiata-q4-2013.xlsx

PDF – https://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/axiata-q4-2013.pdf

My View:-

– Fair values:
  – Absolute PE: 5.84 – 6.43
– AXIATA is current fully valued at current price (6.56 on 25 Feb 2014)
– In terms of market timing, EY% suggest to buy below 6.03, and sell above 8.15.
– I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly.
– As of now, I see lack of growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term.
– I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1543249

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA.

AXIATA-Q4-2013_Page_2

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