– Market Timing
– EY%: Buy below 6.18, sell above 7.19
– 5Y DCF: 6.68 – 7.66; 5Y RDCF: 1% growth rate
– Note: The reason I use 121.72 as owner earnings (but not 117) is capex in FY13 (RM62,393,000) is extremely high. Thus, I use average of capex from 2008 to 2012 to calculate owner earnings. I have to wait FY14 annual report in order to understand the reason.
– JTINTER may be slightly under valued.
– Recently, JTINTER dropped from 6.6 to 6.25 which is quite close to 6.18 (EY%)
– Based on analysts’ consensus, JTINTER’s net cash may hit MYR1/share in FY15. JTINTER has, in the past, paid dividends of 15 to 75sen/share when its net cash reached MYR1/share. Its latest net cash stood at 43.8sen/share at end- Dec 2013.
– Analysts expect industry sales volume to contract by 6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively following the recent 14% hike in selling prices. Besides, JTINTER management expects operating environment to remain extremely challenging, primarily due to the hike in excise duty and cigarette prices. In addition, consumption is expected to be impacted by continued inflationary pressures and weak consumer sentiment.
– JTINTER is one of the most defensive stocks in my equity holdings.
– Looking at potentially high dividend payout in the future, as of writing, I have accumulated few lots of JTINTER at 6.38.
Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1547437
At the time of writing, I owned shares of JTINTER.