– Fair values:
– 5Y DCF: 10.26 – 11.68 (MOS: 5% – 16%)
– Absolute PE: 12.94 – 13.81 (MOS: 24% – 29%)
– I think 11.6-12.9 is reasonable fair value range for MAYBANK. Thus, MAYBANK is slightly undervalued.
– MAYBANK seems to be fairly optimistic over FY14 outlook with tall targets of 13% growth in both loans and deposits. Besides, they also maintain its ROE target at 15%. In my opinion, after studied the risks and growth drivers, this is a realistic target.
– Market Timing:
– EY%: buy below 10.19, sell above 12.18
– I will wait for bullish reversal of the down channel, or MAYBANK formed a new strong support. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK a bit without increasing my average price too much.
Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1550825
At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK.