AIRASIA–Fundamental Analysis (21 May 2014)

AIRASIA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1ndB5Y5

My View:-

– Market Timing
  – Absolute EY%: Buy below 3.47, sell above 4.18 (MOS: 44%)
– I believe that FY2014 would be a better year as compared to 2013, with the expectation that yield would recover and its cost savings initiatives would boost earnings.
– On the other hand, MAS and AIRASIA have guided that domestic and intra-ASEAN fares are unlikely to decline further from the already-low levels, but fares are unlikely to rise either, as capacity deployment over the next six months will be kept at present levels and there is no evidence of capacity rationalisation. As the weak 4Q13 fares carry over into 2014, some analysts expect MAA to experience an average 5% underlying yield compression in 2014, leading to a 26% core net profit decline. To make things worse, Thai AirAsia’s profit is likely to shrink and Indonesia AirAsia’s losses expand further this year. Thus, the analysts expect AirAsia’s group core net profit to fall a massive 43% yoy in 2014. The outlook may improve in 2015-16 as the losses are unsustainable for MAS and Malindo. I also conquer with their view.
– Besides, further decline in pax yield and lower contributions from the overseas associates are expected for FY14 and FY15.
– Based on Changes in Sub. S-hldr’s Int. (29B), since Jan 2014, EPF has been heavily buying AIRASIA, and Wellington also stopped net selling AIRASIA. Heavy buy by EPF doesn’t guarantee appreciation of AIRASIA’s stock price, but it provides a very strong support from 2.2 to 2.4.
– AirAsia has told Bursa Malaysia that it is proposing to buy up to 10% of its issued and paid-up share capital at any point in time. The proposed share buyback, if implemented, will enable AirAsia and its subsidiaries to utilise any of its surplus financial resources, which are not immediately required for other uses, to purchase its own shares from the market, the company said. The proposed share buyback is expected to stabilise the price of AirAsia shares and to prevent against speculation of the shares, when undervalued, to enhance investors’ confidence. (27 Feb 2014)
– I have accumulated AIRASIA 3 times in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 in the range from 2.3 to 2.4, so I won’t accumulate AIRASIA in near term or until it formed a new higher support.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (20 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1627693

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.

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