Excel – http://1drv.ms/1ifWaK9
– Fair value:
– 10Y DCF: 17.52 – 21.59 (MOS: -36% -> -11%)
– Reversed DCF: 16% growth rate to reach 23.9. This also supports that PETDAG is overvalued.
– Absolute EY%:
– R4Q (EPS: 0.735): Buy below 17.70, sell above 21.05 (MOS: -21%)
– FY14 (EPS: 0.881): Buy below 21.23, sell above 25.25 (MOS: 5%)
– Both models indicate that PETDAG is overvalued.
– A potential cutback in national carrier MAS’s routes effective FY15 could cause PETDAG’s jet fuel trade to descent.
– Growth of this company in Malaysia is probably quite capped by market size. Besides, there are few more competitors here, such as Petron, Shell, BP, Caltex, etc…
– I will put PETDAG in the Study List for the time being.
Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (6 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1615529
At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PETDAG, and categorized this stock in the Study List.