TENAGA – Fundamental Analysis (21 Jul 2014)

TENAGA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1ptIQWd

My View:-

– Fair value:
  – Absolute EY%
    – FY13 (EPS: 0.828): Buy below 9.57, sell above 12.02 (MOS: -2.15%)
    – R4Q (EPS: 0.945): Buy below 10.93, sell above 13.72 (MOS: 10.53%)
    – FY14 (EPS: 0.914): Buy below 10.57, sell above 13.28 (MOS: 7.51%)
    – FY15 (EPS: 0.960): Buy below 11.11, sell above 13.94 (MOS: 12%)
– The optimistic outlook on electricity demand growth in Malaysia would be a booster to TNB’s revenue going forward but however, the following risks will discount the growth:
  i) the rising generation costs
  ii) expect a drag on its earnings should the hiccup in FCPT implementation continues.
– The FCPT mechanism as a long-term catalyst for TNB and its uninterrupted implementation would send a positive signal to the market as it would provide a greater clarity on TNB’s long-term
earnings.
– I will continue to hold TENAGA, and may accumulate TENAGA in the future.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (16 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1685693

At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA.

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