AHEALTH – Fundamental Analysis (24 Aug 2014)

AHEALTH Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1q92ObG

My View:-

– Fair Value:
  – Absolute EY%
    – Trailing:   
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.32) – Buy below 3.14, sell above 3.91 (MOS: 3%)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.266) – Buy below 2.6, sell above 3.24 (MOS: -17%)
    – Forward:   
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.36) – Buy below 3.52, sell above 4.39 (MOS: 13.6%)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.38) – Buy below 3.72, sell above 4.64 (MOS: 18.3%)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.79): 0.311   
  – DCF
    – 5Y DCF: 4.64 – 5.28 (MOS: 18% – 28%)
– In 2013, RM 30 million was spent to acquire and retrofit a 50,000 square feet industrial building to support growing business volumes at Apex Pharma Marketing Pte Ltd in Singapore.
  – Thus, FY13 FCF is lower if compare to previous years.
– As a pharmaceutical company, AHEALTH is a defensive company. Being in the industry that sells generic drugs and consumer healthcare products, the general demand for Apex’s products is unlikely to decrease in the period of economic downturn. The group will continue to launch 4 to 8 generic products per year, secure more agency lines, and expand the sales coverage of its wholesale business.
– I may buy some shares of AHEALTH in the future. I will continue to monitor it.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1715313

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of AHEALTH.

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