DIALOG – Fundamental Analysis (25 Aug 2014)

DIALOG Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1pwwlMP

My View:-

– Fair values:
  – Absolute EY% valuation:
    – Trailing:   
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.089) – Buy below 2.6, fair value 3.19 (MOS: 43%). If we divide FY14 Net Profit with the latest NOSH (5,127 mil), EPS will be 0.046. Thus, the fair value will be 1.65. (MOS: -10.5%)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.089) – Buy below 2.6, fair value 3.19 (MOS: 43%). If we divide R4Q Net Profit with the latest NOSH (5,127 mil), EPS will be 0.046. Thus, the fair value will be 1.65. (MOS: -10.5%)
    – Forward:   
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.056) – Buy below 1.64, fair value 2.01 (MOS: 9.5%)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.069) – Buy below 2.01, fair value 2.47 (MOS: 26.3%)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.82): 0.051   
– Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued. At this price, I have around 10% (FY15) – 26% (FY16) MOS.
– Construction works for Phase 1A Pengerang CTF has already been completed in 1QCY14. Phase 1B and Phase 1C are expected to be completed in mid-2014 and end-2014.
– Phase 2 should be "good-to-go" given that the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Petronas’ RAPID project has been approved. For now, the finalised tank terminal capacity and equity stake is pending.
– The Balai RSC has apparently hit first-oil and is due for Extended Well Testing (EWT) program by 1QCY14.
  – Only expected earnings contributions from FY17, and as such, any project acceleration would be further earnings catalyst for DIALOG.
– DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions.
– I may continue to accumulate DIALOG. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1717097

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG.

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