PCHEM – Fundamental Analysis (15 Sep 2014)

PCHEM Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1qIJfn2

My View:-

– Fair values:
  – 5-Y DCF:
    – Base Scenario – 6.11 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Good Scenario – 6.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.393) – Fair value 7.38 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.298) – Fair value 5.6 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.421) – Fair value 7.89 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.463) – Fair value 8.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.3): 0.336
– I do not expect that earnings in FY14 will match that of FY13 despite the end of major turnaround activities. There will be other smaller planned maintenance exercise which will not severely impact overall group earnings. However, I think that this is a short term problem. In long term, growth drivers of PCHEM are still intact.
– My family member accumulated some shares yesterday at 6.42, and will continue to hold and accumulate.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (11 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1706501

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of PCHEM.

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