TENAGA – Fundamental Analysis (20 Sept 2014)

TENAGA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1ptIQWd

My View:-

– Fair value:
  – Absolute EY%
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.828) – Fair value 11.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.945) – Fair value 13.05 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.909) – Fair value 12.55 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.96) – Fair value 13.26 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (12.38): 0.897
– The optimistic outlook on electricity demand growth in Malaysia would be a booster to TNB’s revenue going forward but however, the following risks will discount the growth:
  i) the rising generation costs
  ii) expect a drag on its earnings should the hiccup in FCPT implementation continues.
– The FCPT mechanism as a long-term catalyst for TNB and its uninterrupted implementation would send a positive signal to the market as it would provide a greater clarity on TNB’s long-term
earnings.
– I will continue to hold TENAGA, and may accumulate TENAGA in the future.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (16 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1685693

At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA.

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