SCIENTX – Fundamental Analysis (28 Sept 2014)

SCIENTX Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1mDbhEP

My View:-

– Fair value/Market Timing:
  – 5Y DCF:
    – Base Scenario: 9.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Good Scenario: 11.27 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – Bad Scenario: 8.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Ugly Scenario: 7.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Even if growth of FCF is 6% in the next 5 years, SCIENTX still worth 7.46. 
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 6.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 6.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.789) – Fair value 7.23 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.891) – Fair value 8.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.15): 0.78
  – SCIENTX is still under valued.
– Somehow, I always miss out SCIENTX. I will definitely buy SCIENTX when there is a correction.

Latest Financial – Interim FY14 Financial Report (24 Sep 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1746945

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX.

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4 thoughts on “SCIENTX – Fundamental Analysis (28 Sept 2014)

  1. Dear LC,
    using 5Y DCF, with fair value uncertainty rated as HIGH for ugly scenario, is that mean we at least need to factor in margin of safety of 50% when buying the stock?

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  2. Dear LC Chong,

    Thank you for sharing ur analysis and point of view. As for Scientx, what do u mean by correction? when, what, why will happen to the share price when correction occur?

    thx

    Like

    • Correction means a reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10% in a stock to adjust for an overvaluation. Corrections are generally temporary price declines interrupting an uptrend in the market or an asset. A correction has a shorter duration than a bear market or a recession, but it can be a precursor to either.

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