Excel – http://1drv.ms/1tKrWJU
– Fair Value:
– Good Scenario: 10.10 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
– Base Scenario: 8.86 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario: 7.76 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario: 6.79 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.325) – Fair value 9.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.323) – Fair value 9.74 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY14 (EPS: 0.36) – Fair value 10.86 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.393) – Fair value 11.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.91): 0.262
– In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers
– Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale.
– US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market.
– he increased interest by retail investors, in particular, is a positive sign. Local institutions remain a steady presence in the market, buffering stocks from the worst of the effects of selling by foreign investors.
– I remain sanguine on the company’s outlook over the longer term, as a proxy for the country’s growth. Its business model is also fairly resilient. As mentioned above, recurring and other incomes, including interest income, is sufficient to cover some 91% of total operating expenses.
– I will continue to hold and accumulate BURSA. Let see how it goes.
Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1770229
At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA.