BURSA – Fundamental Analysis (22 Oct 2014)

BURSA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1tKrWJU

My View:-

– Fair Value:
  – 5Y-DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 10.10 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
    – Base Scenario: 8.86 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 7.76 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario: 6.79 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.325) – Fair value 9.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.323) – Fair value 9.74 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.36) – Fair value 10.86 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.393) – Fair value 11.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.91): 0.262
– In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers
  – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale.
  – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market.
– he increased interest by retail investors, in particular, is a positive sign. Local institutions remain a steady presence in the market, buffering stocks from the worst of the effects of selling by foreign investors.
– I remain sanguine on the company’s outlook over the longer term, as a proxy for the country’s growth. Its business model is also fairly resilient. As mentioned above, recurring and other incomes, including interest income, is sufficient to cover some 91% of total operating expenses.
– I will continue to hold and accumulate BURSA. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1770229

At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA.

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3 thoughts on “BURSA – Fundamental Analysis (22 Oct 2014)

      • Thanks Chong. Appreciate that very much!

        In my opinion, Bursa is a stock with limited downside and seem to required very low CAPEX for growth.

        It will not acquire or merge with other stock exchange, so the only way of growth is organic growth, by enticing more retail investor participation.

        Like

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