DIALOG – Fundamental Analysis (29 Oct 2014)

DIALOG Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1tgaCux

My View:-

– Fair values:
  – Absolute EY% valuation:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.056) – Fair value 1.94 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.068) – Fair value 2.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.64): 0.047
– Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued.
– Construction works for Phase 1A Pengerang CTF has already been completed in 1QCY14. Phase 1B and Phase 1C are expected to be completed in mid-2014 and end-2014.
– Phase 2 should be "good-to-go" given that the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Petronas’ RAPID project has been approved. For now, the finalised tank terminal capacity and equity stake is pending.
– The Balai RSC has apparently hit first-oil and is due for Extended Well Testing (EWT) program by 1QCY14.
  – Only expected earnings contributions from FY17, and as such, any project acceleration would be further earnings catalyst for DIALOG.
– DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions.
– I may continue to accumulate DIALOG. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (28 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1777945

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG.

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