DLADY – Fundamental Analysis (16 Nov 2014)

DLADY Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1H3yaIA

My View:-

– Fair Value:
  – 5-Y DCF:
    – Base Scenario – 56.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – Good Scenario – 64.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario – 49.62 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Ugly Scenario – 43.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 2.16) – Fair value 46.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 1.906) – Fair value 41.3 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 1.756) – Fair value 38.04 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – FY15 (EPS: 2.001) – Fair value 43.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (46.62): 2.152
– I am positive with DLADY’s future:
  – Its solid fundamentals and strong branding position
  – Aggressive marketing and promotional activities
  – Robust demand of diary product in the long-term as Malaysia’s population is projected to reach 38 million people by 2040 from 30 million currently.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (6 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1720301

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of DLADY.

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