F&N – Fundamental Analysis (16 Nov 2014)

F&N Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1tWpbyx

My View:-

– Fair Value:
  – 5-Y DCF:
    – Base Scenario – 16.96 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Good Scenario – 19.32 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Bad Scenario – 14.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario – 13.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.717) – Fair value 16.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.76) – Fair value 17.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.714) – Fair value 16.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.785) – Fair value 18.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (16.04): 0.686
– This company is stable, but hardly to expect high growth in long term. May be a good stock to accumulate during economy recession.
– I am also concern about F&N move into property development.
– Besides, the valuation is not really attractive.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (6 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1787513

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of F&N.

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