GASMSIA – Fundamental Analysis (17 Nov 2014)

GASMSIA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1wLUDS8

My View:-

  • Fair Value:
  • Absolute EY%:
  • Trailing:
  • FY13 (EPS: 0.134) – Fair value 3.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
  • R4Q (EPS: 0.144) – Fair value 3.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
  • Forward:
  • FY14 (EPS: 0.148) – Fair value 3.89 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
  • FY15 (EPS: 0.16) – Fair value 4.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
  • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.48): 0.132
  • Volume growth in 2015 requires further
    1) price hikes or
    2) deferment of the reduction in regulated gas quota (from 382 to 300mmscfd) for GMB to preserve spreads.
    These events require approval from the Energy Commission and/or PETRONAS. There are substantial regulatory risks involved.
  • GASMSIA is typical a defensive stock, but current dividend yield is 3.8%. Besides, GASMSIA is just slightly undervalued. Looking at my current portfolio, I am keen to buy GASMSIA, but I don’t want to over-expose to the O&G industry.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (12 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1792277

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GASMSIA.

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