WILLOW – Fundamental Analysis (22 Nov 2014)

WILLOW Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1xMrDiV

My View:-

– Fair values:
  – 5-Y DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 1.23 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
    – Base Scenario: 1.09 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 0.97 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Ugly Scenario: 0.86 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.08) – Fair value 0.73 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.075) – Fair value 0.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.075) – Fair value 0.7 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.082) – Fair value 0.76 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.81): 0.088
– I think the current price already factored in the future earnings. On the other hand, looking at its cash flow growth, WILLOW is still undervalued in long term (5 years).

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (19 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1798629

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WILLOW.


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