COASTAL – Fundamental Analysis (25 Nov 2014)

COASTAL Analysis:-

Excel –

My View:-

– Fair Value:
  – 5-Y DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 4.51 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Base Scenario: 4.02 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 3.58 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario: 3.19 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY% Valuation:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.313) – Fair value 2.55 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.388) – Fair value 3.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.373) – Fair value 3.04 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.424) – Fair value 3.45 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.54): 0.435
  – Uncertainty of fair value range MEDIUM to HIGH.
– COASTAL’s business naturally is cyclical, and the shipbuilding division is currently riding the cyclical uptrend. Besides, I think that O&G sector started to slow down.
– Looking at the current stock price (3.54), investors/traders assumed 0.435 EPS which much higher than R4Q and FY15 estimation. I believe that the current stock price already factored in the future earnings.
– I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (25 Nov 2014)

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL.


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