Excel – http://1drv.ms/1vjwllS
– Fair Value:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Good Scenario: 4.51 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Base Scenario: 4.02 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario: 3.58 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario: 3.19 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Absolute EY% Valuation:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.313) – Fair value 2.55 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.388) – Fair value 3.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– FY14 (EPS: 0.373) – Fair value 3.04 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.424) – Fair value 3.45 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.54): 0.435
– Uncertainty of fair value range MEDIUM to HIGH.
– COASTAL’s business naturally is cyclical, and the shipbuilding division is currently riding the cyclical uptrend. Besides, I think that O&G sector started to slow down.
– Looking at the current stock price (3.54), investors/traders assumed 0.435 EPS which much higher than R4Q and FY15 estimation. I believe that the current stock price already factored in the future earnings.
– I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading.
Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (25 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1801813
At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL.