EFORCE – Fundamental Analysis (26 Nov 2014)

EFORCE Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1yeFjSl

My View:-

– Fair values:
  – 5-Y DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 0.59 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Base Scenario: 0.53 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Bad Scenario: 0.47 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
    – Ugly Scenario: 0.43 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
  – Absolute EY%:
      – Trailing:
        – FY13 (EPS: 0.034) – Fair value 0.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
        – R4Q (EPS: 0.039) – Fair value 0.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – Forward:
        – FY14 (EPS: 0.038) – Fair value 0.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
        – FY15 (EPS: 0.043) – Fair value 0.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.61): 0.045
– This is another good stock I consider to buy, but I am just not sure about its growth drivers because Malaysia market in stock trading is not as big as US/Europe.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (21 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1802125

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of EFORCE.


2 thoughts on “EFORCE – Fundamental Analysis (26 Nov 2014)

  1. Just to understand more with FY15 fair value as 0.58 and its uncertainty as VERY HIGH, isn’t you need to think of MOS discount for at least 40% which implies that 0.58*0.6=0.348 is good price to enter?


    • Price/Fair Value for FY15 is 1.05.

      Due to Uncertainty Risk of EFORCE is LOW, to get better fair value uncertainty (LOW to MEDIUM), I need to wait until price/fair value lower than 0.94.

      Price/Fair Value Ratios by Star Rating and Uncertainty Risk

      This is another way of representing margin of safety.


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