DLADY – Fundamental Analysis (27 Nov 2014)

DLADY Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1rwQX54

My View:-

– Fair Value:
  – 10-Y DCF:
    – Base Scenario – 68.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – Good Scenario – 56.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario – 46.33 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario – 38.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY13 (EPS: 2.16) – Fair value 46.28 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 1.692) – Fair value 36.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY14 (EPS: 1.759) – Fair value 37.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – FY15 (EPS: 1.956) – Fair value 41.9 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (45.4): 2.119
– I am positive with DLADY’s future:
  – Its solid fundamentals and strong branding position
  – Aggressive marketing and promotional activities
  – Robust demand of diary product in the long-term as Malaysia’s population is projected to reach 38 million people by 2040 from 30 million currently.
– Short term concerns:
  – The sales volume to continue the downtrend in view of the tough and challenging operating environment with consumer spending being undermined by the high costs of living
  – Strong USD/MYR will reduce profit margin of DLADY because of import of raw materials from other countries.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (25 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1804233

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of DLADY.

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