Excel – http://1drv.ms/1xILvOI
– Fair value:
– Absolute EY%
– FY13 (EPS: 0.106) – Fair value 1.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.125) – Fair value 1.54 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.119) – Fair value 1.47 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.118) – Fair value 1.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.4): 0.113
– UCHITEC is fully valued.
– UCHITEC has low earning visibility/predictability.
– Although its dividend payout maintains above 80%, its Dividend Yield has been declining from 10% to 7%.
– On one hand, at 1.41, you are still able to enjoy 7% dividend yield
– On the other hand, is it possible for UCHITEC maintain high dividend payout while its net profit and free cash flow has been declining since 2008?
– I do not expect any significant rebound in end demand for premium automatic coffee machines, and this is largely reflected in Uchi’s results. Furthermore with the macro headwinds in Europe, Uchi’s key market, I do not see any near term re-rating catalyst for the stock.
– I will move UCHITEC to the Research List.
Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (24 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1803309
At the time of writing, I did not own shares of UCHITEC.