MAYBANK – Fundamental Analysis (29 Nov 2014)

MAYBANK Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1z3mNuK

My View:-

– Fair values:
  – Absolute EY%:
      – Trailing:
        – FY13 (EPS: 0.758) – Fair value 11.98 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        – R4Q (EPS: 0.724) – Fair value 11.44 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – Forward:
        – FY14 (EPS: 0.718) – Fair value 11.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        – FY15 (EPS: 0.765) – Fair value 12.09 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (9.46): 0.599
  – Dividend Discount Model
    – Base Scenario: 12.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Good Scenario: 12.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 12.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Ugly Scenario: 12.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
  – Residual Income Model (This model is very defensive and sensitive to ROE. I consider the derived price as the bare minimum price)
    – Base Scenario: 11.00
    – Good Scenario: 8.45
    – Bad Scenario: 6.97
    – Ugly Scenario: 6.03
  – Both models pointed that MAYBANK is still undervalued.
– Loan growth accelerated in 3QFY14. Still a strong performance for CFS and Maybank Singapore. Its CI ratio for 9MFY14 would have been better if not for the weaker net income as a result of softer NOII.
– I will continue to hold MAYBANK, and accumulate MAYBANK without increasing my average price too much.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (26 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1806037

At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK.

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