WELLCAL – Fundamental Analysis (1 Dec 2014)

WELLCAL Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/15McbHV

My View:-

– Fair value
  – 5-Y DCF:
    – Base Scenario: 1.99 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – Good Scenario: 2.28 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 1.73 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Ugly Scenario: 1.50 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.089) – Fair value 1.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.089) – Fair value 1.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.1) – Fair value 1.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.11) – Fair value 1.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.66): 0.109
  – Absolute EY% shows that WELLCAL is currently fully valued. In short term, investors already factored in WELLCAL’s growth drivers into the current price.
  – On the other hand, 5Y-DCF indicates that WELLCAL is still undervalued in terms of cash flow.
– Despite good fundamental of this company, I am still not comfortable to buy WELLCAL now. Perhaps, I will buy a small lot, and then attend their AGM.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (28 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1809597

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL.


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