COASTAL – Fundamental Analysis (2 Jan 2015)

COASTAL Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1vjwllS

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/q8jqzjz

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 3.8 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Base Scenario: 3.41 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Bad Scenario: 3.06 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Ugly Scenario: 2.75 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
      • If growth of FCFF in the next 5 years is 7.5%, COASTAL still worth 2.83.
    • Absolute EY% Valuation:
      • Trailing:
        • FY13 (EPS: 0.313) – Fair value 2.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.388) – Fair value 3.32 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Forward:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.373) – Fair value 3.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.413) – Fair value 3.54 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.83): 0.331
    • Uncertainty of fair value range MEDIUM to HIGH. Valuation is not so attractive.
  • I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (25 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1801813

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL.

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