PETGAS – Fundamental Analysis (4 Jan 2015)

PETGAS Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1uQt2nb

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/penltg6

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY13 (EPS: 0.734) – Fair value 19.61 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.842) – Fair value 22.48 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.898) – Fair value 23.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.917) – Fair value 24.48 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (22): 0.824
  • However, based on its decline rate at -2%, PETGAS still worth RM29-34 based on 5-Y projection.
  • Upside room of this stock is slightly limited due to a lack of fresh catalysts (the Pengerang regasification terminal will only come onstream at the end of the decade).
  • Valuations may not very compelling, but not bad. PETGAS still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability.
  • I will continue to hold PETGAS.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (4 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1785353

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS.

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