GASMSIA – Fundamental Analysis (5 Jan 2015)

GASMSIA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1wLUDS8

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/mhmnzn9

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY13 (EPS: 0.134) – Fair value 3.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.144) – Fair value 3.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Forward:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.148) – Fair value 3.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.161) – Fair value 3.99 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.15): 0.127
    • 10-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 3.39 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Base Scenario: 2.78 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • Bad Scenario: 2.28 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • Ugly Scenario: 1.87 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • If growth of FCFF in the next 10 years is 14.5%, GASMSIA still worth 3.15.
    • Absolute PE:
      • FY13 (EPS: 0.134) – Fair value 2.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • R4Q (EPS: 0.144) – Fair value 2.61 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
  • With the new tariff calculation, it would see change in its margin spread unless more customers to be acquired as under the new regime tariff as the group’s earnings is dependent on the natural gas purchased as well as the volume sold to customers. Given this, GASMSIA’s financial would be largely affected. Nonetheless, we believe this would drive GASMSIA to be more efficient in handling the gas transportation and LNG volume. Moving forward, price revision every six months for subsidised volume could give some compensation to GASMSIA should LNG price is rising.
  • GASMSIA is typical a defensive stock, but current dividend yield is 4.3%. Besides, valuation of GASMSIA is not attractive.
  • As I already have quite substantial stakeholding of PETGAS in my portfolio, I won’t invest in GASMSIA. I will put GASMSIA in the Research List.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (12 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1792277

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GASMSIA.

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