Excel – http://1drv.ms/1xJIbWk
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/nzkwnf3
- 10-Y DCF:
- Good Scenario: 19.22 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Base Scenario: 15.75 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
- Bad Scenario: 12.91 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- Ugly Scenario: 10.59 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
- If growth of FCFF in the next 10 years is 11.7%, PETDAG still worth 17.12.
- Absolute EY%:
- FY13 (EPS: 0.817) – Fair value 23.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.657) – Fair value 19.11 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- FY14 (EPS: 0.756) – Fair value 22 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- FY15 (EPS: 0.805) – Fair value 23.42 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (17.12): 0.588
- 10-Y DCF:
- A potential cutback in national carrier MAS’s routes effective FY15 could cause PETDAG’s jet fuel trade to descent.
- Growth of this company in Malaysia is probably quite capped by market size. Besides, there are few more competitors here, such as Petron, Shell, BP, Caltex, etc…
- Falling oil price not in its favour
- I will put PETDAG in the Reserved List.
Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (4 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1785121
At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PETDAG.