PETDAG – Fundamental Analysis (5 Jan 2015)

PETDAG Analysis:-

Excel –

Notes –

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 10-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 19.22 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Base Scenario: 15.75 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Bad Scenario: 12.91 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • Ugly Scenario: 10.59 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • If growth of FCFF in the next 10 years is 11.7%, PETDAG still worth 17.12.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY13 (EPS: 0.817) – Fair value 23.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.657) – Fair value 19.11 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.756) – Fair value 22 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.805) – Fair value 23.42 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (17.12): 0.588
  • A potential cutback in national carrier MAS’s routes effective FY15 could cause PETDAG’s jet fuel trade to descent.
  • Growth of this company in Malaysia is probably quite capped by market size. Besides, there are few more competitors here, such as Petron, Shell, BP, Caltex, etc…
  • Falling oil price not in its favour
  • I will put PETDAG in the Reserved List.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (4 Nov 2014)

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PETDAG.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s