PETDAG – Fundamental Analysis (5 Jan 2015)

PETDAG Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1xJIbWk

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/nzkwnf3

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 10-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 19.22 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Base Scenario: 15.75 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Bad Scenario: 12.91 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • Ugly Scenario: 10.59 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • If growth of FCFF in the next 10 years is 11.7%, PETDAG still worth 17.12.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY13 (EPS: 0.817) – Fair value 23.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.657) – Fair value 19.11 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.756) – Fair value 22 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.805) – Fair value 23.42 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (17.12): 0.588
  • A potential cutback in national carrier MAS’s routes effective FY15 could cause PETDAG’s jet fuel trade to descent.
  • Growth of this company in Malaysia is probably quite capped by market size. Besides, there are few more competitors here, such as Petron, Shell, BP, Caltex, etc…
  • Falling oil price not in its favour
  • I will put PETDAG in the Reserved List.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (4 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1785121

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PETDAG.

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