WELLCAL – Fundamental Analysis (31 Jan 2015)

WELLCAL Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/15Sn0bi

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/nuan5m5

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 2.02 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Base Scenario: 1.78 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Bad Scenario: 1.57 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • Ugly Scenario: 1.38 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • If growth of FCFF in the next 5 years is 18.5%, WELLCAL still worth 1.8.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.089) – Fair value 1.27 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.089) – Fair value 1.27 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.1) – Fair value 1.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.11) – Fair value 1.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.66): 0.109
  • WELLCAL’s valuation is not attractive
  • Despite good fundamental of this company, I am still not comfortable to buy WELLCAL now.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (30 Jan 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1866089

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL.

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4 thoughts on “WELLCAL – Fundamental Analysis (31 Jan 2015)

  1. Hi, Chong,

    Can you read me here? Sean From: Towards Total Financial Freedom To: seanchin@yahoo.com Sent: Saturday, January 31, 2015 3:01 PM Subject: [New post] WELLCAL – Fundamental Analysis (31 Jan 2015) #yiv4112973254 a:hover {color:red;}#yiv4112973254 a {text-decoration:none;color:#0088cc;}#yiv4112973254 a.yiv4112973254primaryactionlink:link, #yiv4112973254 a.yiv4112973254primaryactionlink:visited {background-color:#2585B2;color:#fff;}#yiv4112973254 a.yiv4112973254primaryactionlink:hover, #yiv4112973254 a.yiv4112973254primaryactionlink:active {background-color:#11729E;color:#fff;}#yiv4112973254 WordPress.com | L. C. Chong posted: “WELLCAL Analysis:-Excel – http://1drv.ms/15Sn0biNoteshttp://tinyurl.com/nuan5m5My View:- Valuation: 5-Y DCF: Good Scenario: 2.02 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM) Base Scenario: 1.78 (Fair value uncerta” | |

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  2. Good Morning LC,

    At the current price of RM1.80, has the price moved ahead of its fundamental value? This is Based on DCF analysis, fair value is RM1.78.
    I am very impressed with the current management.
    They have done well to sustain high ROIC and CROIC vs WACC over long term.

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    • Indeed, I wanted to buy wellcal few weeks ago, but I missed the discounted price. Too busy and overlooked few things

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