Excel – http://1drv.ms/18PYwRO
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/pruyneu
- Good Scenario: 8.92 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
- Base Scenario: 8.01 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
- Bad Scenario: 7.19 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
- Ugly Scenario: 6.47 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- If growth of FCFF in the next 5 years is -8.3%, APM still worth 4.96.
- Absolute EY%
- FY13 (EPS: 0.633) – Fair value 5.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.504) – Fair value 4.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- FY15 (EPS: 0.493) – Fair value 4.42 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- FY16 (EPS: 0.504) – Fair value 4.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (4.96): 0.553
- In short term, due to some uncertainties in Malaysia economy, APM business may slow down. Thus, the valuation for short term (Absolute EY%) is less attractive.
- On the other hand, in longer term, looking at their rich cash flow, I believe APM is still undervalued.
- In my opinion, APM business is cyclical, and prone to economy conditions.
- I will keep APM in my Research List, and may study further in the future. At this moment, I am looking for new defensive stocks.
Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (26 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1805693
At the time of writing, I did not own shares of APM.