NTPM – Fundamental Analysis (8 Feb 2015)

NTPM Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1zkfVHp

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/k2k4u82

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5Y-DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 0.34 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • Base Scenario: 0.3 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • Bad Scenario: 0.27 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • Ugly Scenario: 0.24 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • If growth of FCFF in the next 5 years is 23.5%, NTPM still worth 0.645.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.048) – Fair value 0.64 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.037) – Fair value 0.5 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.031) – Fair value 0.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.047) – Fair value 0.62 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.645): 0.048
  • I am very new to this counter, but I have difficulties to think about its growth drivers.
  • Besides, NTPM has no obvious economic moats.
  • I will place this counter in Research List.

Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (19 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1831869

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of NTPM.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s