PETGAS – Fundamental Analysis (23 Feb 2015)

PETGAS Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1El9omC

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/m4zjk6t

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.813) – Fair value 22.17 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.931) – Fair value 25.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.907) – Fair value 24.72 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.934) – Fair value 25.47 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (22.3): 0.818
  • The stock price movement of PetGas has been fairly resilient, trading sideways within the band of RM21-23 per share since mid-August 2014 despite the >-50% drop in global crude oil prices.
  • Upside room of this stock is slightly limited due to a lack of fresh catalysts (the Pengerang regasification terminal will only come onstream at the end of the decade).
  • Valuations may not very compelling, but not bad. PETGAS still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability.
  • I will continue to hold PETGAS.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (17 Feb 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1880553

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS.

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