COASTAL – Fundamental Analysis (25 Feb 2015)

COASTAL Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1DSiIiI

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/lvazf2l

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 3.71 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Base Scenario: 3.35 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Bad Scenario: 3.03 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Ugly Scenario: 2.75 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • At current price (3.02), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is 1.9%.
    • Absolute EY% Valuation:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.367) – Fair value 3.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.367) – Fair value 3.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.382) – Fair value 3.29 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.44) – Fair value 3.78 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.02): 0.351
    • Uncertainty of fair value range MEDIUM to HIGH. Valuation is not so attractive.
  • Net profit in 4Q14 weakened by 28.0% QoQ mainly due to lower delivery of OSV vessels (4Q14: 2 vessels vs. 3Q14: 3 vessels).
  • I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (24 Feb 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1883317

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL.

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