Excel – http://1drv.ms/1DSiIiI
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/lvazf2l
- 5-Y DCF:
- Good Scenario: 3.71 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Base Scenario: 3.35 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
- Bad Scenario: 3.03 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
- Ugly Scenario: 2.75 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- At current price (3.02), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is 1.9%.
- Absolute EY% Valuation:
- FY14 (EPS: 0.367) – Fair value 3.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.367) – Fair value 3.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- FY15 (EPS: 0.382) – Fair value 3.29 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- FY16 (EPS: 0.44) – Fair value 3.78 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.02): 0.351
- Uncertainty of fair value range MEDIUM to HIGH. Valuation is not so attractive.
- 5-Y DCF:
- Net profit in 4Q14 weakened by 28.0% QoQ mainly due to lower delivery of OSV vessels (4Q14: 2 vessels vs. 3Q14: 3 vessels).
- I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading.
Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (24 Feb 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1883317
At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL.