Excel – http://1drv.ms/1DnZAX9
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/lby6myo
- 10-Y DCF:
- Good Scenario: 48.64 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
- Base Scenario: 39.95 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- Bad Scenario: 32.8 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
- Ugly Scenario: 26.93 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
- At current price (46.06), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 10 years is 22.9%.
- Absolute EY%:
- FY14 (EPS: 1.716) – Fair value 37.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- R4Q (EPS: 1.716) – Fair value 37.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- FY15 (EPS: 2.002) – Fair value 44.07 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- FY16 (EPS: 2.161) – Fair value 47.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (46.06): 2.093
- 10-Y DCF:
- I am positive with DLADY’s future:
- Its solid fundamentals and strong branding position
- Aggressive marketing and promotional activities
- Robust demand of diary product in the long-term as Malaysia’s population is projected to reach 38 million people by 2040 from 30 million currently.
- Short term concerns:
- The sales volume to continue the downtrend in view of the tough and challenging operating environment with consumer spending being undermined by the high costs of living
- Strong USD/MYR will reduce profit margin of DLADY because of import of raw materials from other countries.
- PAT of RM34 million in 4Q14 grew by 17% q-o-q and 5% y-o-y, bringing 12M14’s PAT to RM110 million compared to RM138 million in 12M13 (-21% y-oy). The lower PAT was tempered by higher dairy based commodity prices and weakening of the Malaysian Ringgit.
Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (24 Feb 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1883289
At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of DLADY.