AXIATA – Fundamental Analysis (26 Feb 2015)

AXIATA Analysis:-

Excel –

Notes –

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.272) – Fair value 6.06 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.265) – Fair value 5.91 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.3) – Fair value 6.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.323) – Fair value 7.2 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.17): 0.322
  • I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly.
  • Axiata has introduced its FY15 KPIs, where the group targets to achieve revenue and EBITDA annual growth rates of 4.0% each (at constant currency level). Its capex, meanwhile, is expected at RM4.8b (FY14: RM4.0b).
  • Management alluded to a potentially weak 1Q15 for Celcom, as
    • The IT issues have still not been fully resolved and,
    • There is likely some spill-over impact from the East Coast floods.
  • As of now, I do not see new growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term. The Indonesia operation, the group’s second largest segment, is still loss making subsequent to the acquisition of Axis. Higher contributions from other segments are still insufficient to compensate for this loss. In addition, sizeable exposure to forex, particularly the Indonesia operation, also impacted the group’s bottomline.
  • I will continue to hold, but won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (25 Feb 2015)

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA.


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