EFORCE – Fundamental Analysis (27 Feb 2015)

EFORCE Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1yeFjSl

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/pqmyptm

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 0.58 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • Base Scenario: 0.52 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • Bad Scenario: 0.46 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • Ugly Scenario: 0.42 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • At current price (0.665), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is 14.8%.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.034) – Fair value 0.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.042) – Fair value 0.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.038) – Fair value 0.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.043) – Fair value 0.7 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.665): 0.04
  • FY14 FCFF is negative because higher capex.
  • This is another good stock, but I am just not sure about its growth drivers because Malaysia market in stock trading is not as big as US/Europe. There are only handful of stock broking firms in Malaysia.
  • I will move EFORCE to the Research List, and may revisit EFORCE if this company has new products or business direction.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (24 Feb 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1883561

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of EFORCE.


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