Excel – http://1drv.ms/1A9QzO2
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/kbtptlf
- 5Y DCF:
- Good Scenario: 12.11 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Base Scenario: 11.24 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Bad Scenario: 10.46 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Ugly Scenario: 9.78 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
- At current price (8.53), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is -13%.
- Absolute EY%:
- FY14 (EPS: 0.405) – Fair value 8.65 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.376) – Fair value 8.03 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- FY15 (EPS: 0.53) – Fair value 11.33 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- FY16 (EPS: 0.595) – Fair value 12.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (8.53): 0.399
- 5Y DCF:
- In overall, fair value of GENTING range from 10.46 to 12.7, and the uncertainty of fair value is MEDIUM.
- While Genting continues to be in expansion mode, most of its current investments will only come to fruition in 2H15/2016. There are limited near-term catalysts for the group
- As of now, I will continue to hold, but won’t accumulate GENTING because there are many uncertainties at this moment.
Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (26 Feb 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1887481
At the time of writing, I owned shares of GENTING.