GENTING – Fundamental Analysis (9 Mar 2015)

GENTING Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1A9QzO2

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/kbtptlf

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 12.11 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Base Scenario: 11.24 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Bad Scenario: 10.46 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Ugly Scenario: 9.78 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
      • At current price (8.53), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is -13%.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.405) – Fair value 8.65 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.376) – Fair value 8.03 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.53) – Fair value 11.33 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.595) – Fair value 12.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (8.53): 0.399
  • In overall, fair value of GENTING range from 10.46 to 12.7, and the uncertainty of fair value is MEDIUM.
  • While Genting continues to be in expansion mode, most of its current investments will only come to fruition in 2H15/2016. There are limited near-term catalysts for the group
  • As of now, I will continue to hold, but won’t accumulate GENTING because there are many uncertainties at this moment.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (26 Feb 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1887481

At the time of writing, I owned shares of GENTING.

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