Excel – http://1drv.ms/1xfXsBy
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/p6tgmrp
- 5Y DCF:
- Good Scenario: 10.8 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
- Base Scenario: 9.39 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Bad Scenario: 8.15 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Ugly Scenario: 7.05 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
- At current price (6.6), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is 0.3%.
- Absolute EY%:
- FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 5.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.678) – Fair value 5.4 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- FY15 (EPS: 0.729) – Fair value 5.8 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- FY16 (EPS: 0.822) – Fair value 6.54 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.6): 0.829
- 5Y DCF:
- The cast polypropylene (CPP) film (extensively used in flexible packaging of food and beverages) plant is expected to commence operations by end-2015. This new product should increase the production capacity in FY15 to sustain the group performance in this industry.
- 24 Mar 2015 – SCIENTX will be less impacted by weakening of MYR after the company reduced their USD borrowings exposure to 58% as of 2Q15 (vs. 77% in 1Q15).
- The implementation of GST in April 2015 will give short-term impact on demand for the group.
- Valuation of SCIENTX is not attractive. In overall, uncertainty of fair values is from MEDIUM to VERY HIGH.
Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (23 Mar 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1909681
At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX.