Excel – http://1drv.ms/1brOckc
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/nagx3x2
- Absolute EY%:
- FY15 (EPS: 0.193) – Fair value 4.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 5.49 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
- FY16 (EPS: 0.19) – Fair value 4.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
- FY17 (EPS: 0.212) – Fair value 4.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.3): 0.1
- As for DCF, as SKPETRO does not disclose details of Operating Cash Flow, I will calculate DCF after SKPETRO releases Annual Report 2015.
- Absolute EY%:
- 25 Mar 2015 – Orderbook remains healthy at approximately RM25.7b, stretching up to year 2024, with approximately RM19b in extension options.
- 25 Mar 2015 – At the end of FY15 (2.6x of FY15 revenue) with 28% (RM7.3 billion) and 21% (RM5.5 billion) would be burned-out in FY16 and FY17 respectively.
- Valuation of SKPETRO is very attractive as the company’s locked-in order book remains solid and that its oil fields are still in the black.
- In FY15, SKPETRO FY15 normalised earnings rose by 6% yoy to RM1,154m
- The DES and Fab & HUC segments registered topline growth with the exception of OCSS segment. DES segment remains as the key contributor with almost equal PBT contribution from Energy and Drilling.
- The company has locked-in approximately >RM7b worth of jobs to be executed for FY16. Including revenue contribution from the Energy segment (approximately RM2b per year) and excluding joint-venture project portions, SKPETRO will still need to replenish and execute >RM2b worth of jobs in FY16 to at least match the normalised earnings achieved in FY15.
- The weak global crude oil price and coupled with Petronas’ capex cut are still the key risks in FY16.
- Management remains confident to be included in the SC’s May 2015’s Shariah compliant list.
- I will hold and continue to accumulate SKPETRO.
Latest Financial – Q4 2015 Financial Report (24 Mar 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1910805
At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.