Excel – http://1drv.ms/1H8PR93
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/mxgn8b6
- 5-Y DCF:
- Good Scenario: 1.15 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Base Scenario: 1.03 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Bad Scenario: 0.92 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
- Ugly Scenario: 0.82 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- At current price (0.91), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is -3%.
- Absolute EY%:
- FY14 (EPS: 0.072) – Fair value 0.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.072) – Fair value 0.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- FY15 (EPS: 0.075) – Fair value 0.72 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- FY16 (EPS: 0.082) – Fair value 0.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.91): 0.095
- 5-Y DCF:
- I think the current price already factored in the future earnings. Despite WILLOW is undervalued in terms of FCFF, WILLOW future earnings may not support the assumption.
Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (29 Apr 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4721961
At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WILLOW.