WILLOW – Fundamental Analysis (11 May 2015)

WILLOW Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1H8PR93

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/mxgn8b6

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario: 1.15 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Base Scenario: 1.03 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Bad Scenario: 0.92 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
      • Ugly Scenario: 0.82 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • At current price (0.91), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is -3%.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.072) – Fair value 0.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.072) – Fair value 0.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.075) – Fair value 0.72 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.082) – Fair value 0.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.91): 0.095
  • I think the current price already factored in the future earnings. Despite WILLOW is undervalued in terms of FCFF, WILLOW future earnings may not support the assumption.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (29 Apr 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4721961

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WILLOW.

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One thought on “WILLOW – Fundamental Analysis (11 May 2015)

  1. Good Morning LC,
    Willow is undervalued in terms of FCFF.
    Does this mean if the FCFF increases, it current share price has already factored in the future growth?
    Appreciate your feedback.

    Thank you,

    Like

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