PADINI – Fundamental Analysis (20 May 2015)

PADINI Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1PwFqUf

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/lyevtd9

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 1.82 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.115) – Fair value 1.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.118) – Fair value 1.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.142) – Fair value 1.88 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.35): 0.102
  • Assuming PADINI dividend payout is consistent, I think dividend yield is around 9%.
  • In overall, PADINI valuation is slightly attractive.
  • FY15Q3 earnings rose +26.0%yoy and +64.1%qoq to RM26.6m
    • Higher operating costs and effective tax rate caused margin erosion to maintain its market share.
  • In coming quarters, I think GST and competition from new entrants to the market will be the main risk for PADINI. I think these issues are short term. If PADINI is able to go through this, PADINI future will be quite promising.
  • I will continue to hold, and accumulate PADINI if possible.

Latest Financial – Q3 2015 Financial Report (19 May 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4741437

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PADINI.

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