AIRASIA – Fundamental Analysis (29 May 2015)

AIRASIA Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1LPLUY0

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/ou8g4dn

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • Absolute EY% Valuation
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.114) – Fair value 1.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.034) – Fair value 0.55 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.253) – Fair value 4.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.266) – Fair value 4.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.08): 0.127
  • 18 May 2015 – AirAsia 1Q passenger volume up 3% to 11.89m
  • Positives:
    • A more rational market with further yield recovery
    • Capacity management to reduce costs
    • Better ancillary income.
  • Beside huge unrealised forex losses, 1Q15 results could be under par as a result of 60 days blackout on advertising following the QZ8501 incident.
  • FY15Q1 – Healthy revenue is recorded at RM1.3bn -0.4% YoY due to the discontinuation of fuel surcharge as well as from lower marketing campaign (post QZ8501 incident). Operating cost lowered by -6.1% YoY mainly due lower jet fuel cost. Average Jet fuel price was US$88/bbl in 1Q15 vs. US$122/bbl in FY14Q1.
  • I am still worry about AIRASIA, but I believe AIRASIA will be able to go through these issues.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (28 May 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4756765

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.

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