FLBHD–Fundamental Analysis (30 Jun 2015)

FLBHD Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1FMZFBR

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/pndtde9

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario (5.0% – 7.0%): From 2.25 to 2.38 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
      • Base Scenario (3.0%): 2.14 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
      • Bad Scenario (-1.0% – 1.0%): From 1.92 to 2.02 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
      • Ugly Scenario (-5.0% – -3.0%): From 1.73 to 1.82 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
      • At current price (1.31), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is -16.5%.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.154) – From 1.06 to 1.30 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.148) – From 1.01 to 1.25 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.171) – From 1.14 to 1.40 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.188) – From 1.26 to 1.54 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM to HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.31): 0.173
    • Simple Yield Valuation:
      • FY14–EY%: 11.9%
      • FY14–DY%: 6.1%
      • R4Q–EY%: 11.3%
      • R4Q–DY%: 6.1%
    • I manually calculate the average (median) of PE of this industry, and it is around 10.75 (EY%: 9.3%). If I apply this to Absolute EY%, the fair value is around 2.02.
  • This company continuously maintained high dividend yield.
  • FLBHD is one of the beneficial of strong USD.
  • Its dividend yield is attractive, and valuation is also not bad. I think FLBHD is a lagger in this industry.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (21 May 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4746221

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of FLBHD.

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