Excel – http://1drv.ms/1C822ob
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/p6tgmrp
- 5Y DCF:
- Good Scenario (12.0% – 14.0%): From 10.04 to 10.76 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
- Base Scenario (10.0%): 9.36 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
- Bad Scenario (6.0% – 8.0%): From 8.12 to 8.72 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
- Ugly Scenario (2.0% – 4.0%): From 7.02 to 7.55 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH)
- At current price (6.89), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is 1.5%.
- Absolute EY%:
- FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – From 5.21 to 6.83 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.709) – From 5.51 to 7.21 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
- FY15 (EPS: 0.676) – From 5.25 to 6.81 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
- FY16 (EPS: 0.782) – From 6.07 to 7.87 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM to VERY HIGH)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.89): 0.802
- 5Y DCF:
- The cast polypropylene (CPP) film (extensively used in flexible packaging of food and beverages) plant is expected to commence operations by end-2015. This new product should increase the production capacity in FY15 to sustain the group performance in this industry.
- In the property segment, Scientex had realigned its focus to affordable homes where demand has remained resilient. The group expects to see more new launches in its existing Taman Scientex Senai, Kulai and Pasir Gudang projects.
- 24 Mar 2015 – SCIENTX will be less impacted by weakening of MYR after the company reduced their USD borrowings exposure to 58% as of 2Q15 (vs. 77% in 1Q15).
- Valuation of SCIENTX is not bad, but a bigger discount is preferable.
- Corporate Update & Financial Results
Latest Financial – Q3 2015 Financial Report (29 Jun 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4785945
At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX.