SCIENTX–Fundamental Analysis (1 Jul 2015)

SCIENTX Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1C822ob

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/p6tgmrp

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario (12.0% – 14.0%): From 10.04 to 10.76 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
      • Base Scenario (10.0%): 9.36 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
      • Bad Scenario (6.0% – 8.0%): From 8.12 to 8.72 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
      • Ugly Scenario (2.0% – 4.0%): From 7.02 to 7.55 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH)
      • At current price (6.89), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is 1.5%.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – From 5.21 to 6.83 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.709) – From 5.51 to 7.21 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.676) – From 5.25 to 6.81 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.782) – From 6.07 to 7.87 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM to VERY HIGH)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.89): 0.802
  • The cast polypropylene (CPP) film (extensively used in flexible packaging of food and beverages) plant is expected to commence operations by end-2015. This new product should increase the production capacity in FY15 to sustain the group performance in this industry.
  • In the property segment, Scientex had realigned its focus to affordable homes where demand has remained resilient. The group expects to see more new launches in its existing Taman Scientex Senai, Kulai and Pasir Gudang projects.
  • 24 Mar 2015 – SCIENTX will be less impacted by weakening of MYR after the company reduced their USD borrowings exposure to 58% as of 2Q15 (vs. 77% in 1Q15).
  • Valuation of SCIENTX is not bad, but a bigger discount is preferable.
  • Corporate Update & Financial Results

Latest Financial – Q3 2015 Financial Report (29 Jun 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4785945

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s