PETGAS – Fundamental Analysis (5 Aug 2015)

PETGAS Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1IGdGTO

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/m4zjk6t

My View:-

  • Valuation:
  • Absolute EY%:
  • Trailing:
    • FY14 (EPS: 0.813) – 23.06 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH)
    • R4Q (EPS: 1.141) – 32.38 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
  • Forward:
    • FY15 (EPS: 0.915 ± 5%) – From 24.67 to 27.27 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
    • FY16 (EPS: 0.932 ± 5%) – From 25.12 to 27.77 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
  • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (22.5): 0.793
  • Its cumulative 2HFY15 normalised earnings however rose by +11.2%yoy to RM949m. The huge bump in its reported earnings is due to the recognition of investment tax asset from the investment tax allowances granted for its plant rejuvenation and revamp activities totalling RM407m. The QoQ earnings decline because PTG’s 1Q15 margins were temporarily boosted by lower repair/maintenance activities.
  • The stock price movement of PetGas has been fairly resilient, trading sideways within the band of RM21-23 per share since mid-August 2014 despite the >-50% drop in global crude oil prices.
  • Upside room of this stock is slightly limited due to a lack of fresh catalysts (the Pengerang regasification terminal will only come onstream at the end of the decade).
  • Valuations may not very compelling, but not bad. PETGAS still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability.
  • I will continue to hold PETGAS.Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (4 Aug 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4820005

    At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS.

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