WILLOW – Fundamental Analysis (26 Aug 2015)

WILLOW Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1LzFfVR

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/mxgn8b6

My View:-

  • Valuation:
    • 5-Y DCF:
      • Good Scenario (8.0% – 10.0%): From 1.09 to 1.15 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
      • Base Scenario (5.0% – 7.0%): From 1.00 to 1.06 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
      • Bad Scenario (2.0% – 4.0%): From 0.92 to 0.97 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
      • Ugly Scenario (-2.0% – 0.0%): From 0.82 to 0.87 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
      • At current price (0.68), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is -9%.
    • Absolute EY%:
      • Trailing:
        • FY14 (EPS: 0.072) – 0.76 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH)
        • R4Q (EPS: 0.07) – 0.74 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH)
      • Forward:
        • FY15 (EPS: 0.075 ± 5%) – From 0.76 to 0.84 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM to HIGH)
        • FY16 (EPS: 0.082 ± 5%) – From 0.83 to 0.91 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
      • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.68): 0.064
  • I think the current price already factored in the future earnings. Despite WILLOW is undervalued in terms of FCFF, WILLOW future earnings may not support the assumption.

Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (19 Aug 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4833637

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WILLOW.

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2 thoughts on “WILLOW – Fundamental Analysis (26 Aug 2015)

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