FLBHD–Fundamental Analysis (28 Aug 2015)

FLBHD Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1VidFye

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/pndtde9

My View:-

  • Valuation:
  • 5-Y DCF:
    • Good Scenario (8.0% – 10.0%): From 2.26 to 2.38 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
    • Base Scenario (5.0% – 7.0%): From 2.09 to 2.20 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
    • Bad Scenario (2.0% – 4.0%): From 1.94 to 2.04 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
    • Ugly Scenario (-2.0% – 0.0%): From 1.75 to 1.84 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
    • At current price (1.52), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is -8%.
  • Absolute EY%:
    • Trailing:
      • FY14 (EPS: 0.154) – 1.140 (Uncertainty Risk: EXTREME)
      • R4Q (EPS: 0.191) – 1.413 (Uncertainty Risk: VERY HIGH)
    • Forward:
      • FY15 (EPS: 0.19 ± 5%) – From 1.333 to 1.473 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH to VERY HIGH)
      • FY16 (EPS: 0.209 ± 5%) – From 1.466 to 1.620 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM to HIGH)
    • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.52): 0.206
  • Simple Yield Valuation:
    • FY14–EY%: 10.2%
    • FY14–DY%: 5.3%
    • R4Q–EY%: 12.6%
    • R4Q–DY%: 5.3%
  • In short term (1 – 2 years), the current price already factored in the growth drivers. Nevertheless, if we value this company in terms of cash flow (5 years), this company is undervalued.
  • This company continuously maintained high dividend yield.
  • FLBHD is one of the beneficial of strong USD.
  • Its dividend yield is attractive, and valuation is also not bad. I think FLBHD is a lagger in this industry.
  • Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (21 Aug 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4836957

    At the time of writing, I did not own shares of FLBHD.

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