ALLIANZ – Fundamental Analysis (11 Sep 2015)

ALLIANZ Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1NsRJz5

My View:-

  • Absolute EY%:
  • Trailing
  • FY14 (EPS: 0.716) – 10.998 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH)
  • R4Q (EPS: 0.748) – 11.489 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
  • Forward:
  • FY15 (EPS: 0.98 ± 5%) – From 14.303 to 15.809 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
  • FY16 (EPS: 1.08 ± 5%) – From 15.763 to 17.422 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW)
  • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (10.6): 0.690
  • ALLIANZ’s dividend payout is extremely low, so never expect good dividend from them. Reasons:
  • High capital or surplus retained due to nature of industry
  • Stringent regulatory requirement to protect policyholders’ interest
  • Managing stringent capital buffer to withstand adverse or unfavorable experience
  • Unlike LPI (general insurance and financing on leases), ALLIANZ is heavily dependence on single segment: motor insurance; and also dependence on agent for life insurance. ALLIANZ requires high capital to grow distribution capabilities, and fund new business growth. By the way, my wife owned shares of LPI.
  • Balance float of outstanding shares is very low: 4.20%.
  • As Life Insurance is maturing into an exponential phase of contribution, I believe ALLIANZ growth is quite secure. Besides, recurring premium is now 80% of LI’s portfolio and new business margins will be anchored by bancassurance (past the initial phases of expense overrun) and ILB (better margins vs traditional).
  • Valuation of ALLIANZ is not bad. I will continue to hold ALLIANZ, and accumulate ALLIANZ whenever possible.

Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (26 Aug 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4846265

At the time of writing, I owned shares of ALLIANZ.

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3 thoughts on “ALLIANZ – Fundamental Analysis (11 Sep 2015)

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