I would like to provide some updates about my action plan on HAIO. Since Mar 2016, HAIO has been very astonishing, increased from 2.4 to 4.28, close to 78% increase.
This is beyond my expectation. Now, I have a happy problem to solve. That is I have to decide whether I should continue to accumulate the stock, sell the stock or hold the stock.
To make decision, I have to look into three aspects. Firstly, the growth drivers that support the price performance. Secondly, challenges that will probably suppress good story of HAIO. Lastly, the valuation. Is it fully valued, overvalued or undervalued?
- Based on the recent quarterly results, for MLM division, revenue and pre-tax profit increased by about 70% and more than double to RM77.5 million and RM 16 million respectively as compared to FY16 Q2. Additional sales from new products and higher recurring sales of consumer products from member customers and the increase in monthly recruited new members had helped to boost revenue and profit for the division. The new members recruited had increased by more than double to approximately 40,000 which had contributed to a higher sales to the MLM division.
- 6 Sep 2016 – The group aims to expand to the Middle East, China, India, Sri Lanka and Europe via partnerships to explore the market for products for women, such as fashion, accessories and cosmetics.
- A short term (possible) boost – As Chinese New Year festive season is approaching, the Retail division will carry out an extensive CNY promotion campaign and is expecting to bring in more revenue in the next quarter. As reported in recent quarterly results, Currently, the Retail division has started recruiting more Chinese physicians for its outlets to enhance its image as a healthcare service provider and to attract more crowd. Whereas for the MLM division, it will continue to intensify its new members recruitment program and to roll out more new products in the second half of the year.
- Performance of the wholesale and retail division still weak.
- Wholesale division – Revenue decreased by about 30% to RM 11.7 million as compared to FY16 Q2 of RM 16.8 million. The decrease in revenue was mainly attributable to lower sales generated from duty-free goods and Chinese medicated tonic as most of the medical halls had reduced their stockholding level since the increase in selling price early of this financial year.
- Retail Division – Despite continuous weak consumer sentiment in the domestic market, revenue decreased marginally by about 2.6% to RM 9.3 million as compared FY16 Q2. The pre-tax profit declined by approximately 31% mainly due to lower A&P income subsidy from suppliers and a drop in sales of the higher margin house-brand products.
- The Wholesale division will continue to be affected by the weakening of RM currency as about 40% of its purchases are imported. The division sees that its profit margin will be adversely affected in the near future and has looked into more trade settlement using RMB currency instead of USD with the traders in China.
- Weak purchasing power of consumers.
Refer to my updated financial modelling, I opined that HAIO is currently (but not extreme) overvalued at 4.28 based on the following blended valuation (DCF, earnings and dividends)
What is market expectation on HAIO at 4.28? My guess: High dividend payout and resilient company – HAIO committed to give 100% payout, but yet to become a policy. I think that due to uncertainties, investors are looking for conservative and dividend stocks. Some investors are probably willing to pay premium for HAIO. If just looking at valuation from dividend perspective,
- Baseline – 3.9-4.1
- Good – 4.0-4.5
Refer to the above table, my holding price is in the range of 2.1 and 2.3 (the ugly scenario). Besides, my dividend yield is around 9%.
Protected by high dividend yield and good scenario (3.9 – 4.2), I will continue to hold and monitor HAIO. Another qualitative factor is ever since Mr. Tan Kai Hee (or the old senior management team) let go responsibilities in managing company to the younger management team, I feel that the new management team demonstrated higher energy and more active leadership. I am OK to give HAIO the “benefit of doubt” where I underestimate their future earnings and cash flow.